US beef shortage creates opportunities for Australia
Australia’s beef producers have made market gains and its sheep flock continues to grow, according to industry body Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) as part of its mid-year Cattle Industry and Sheep Industry report.
MLA senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said: “MLA’s industry projections are an important tool for industry and the broader supply chain to understand the direction of the red meat sector over the next couple of years, including macro issues impacting the industry and a deeper understanding of forecast supply.”
In 2024, the national cattle herd is estimated to have eased 1.4% to 30.2 million head, a decline of slightly over 400,000 head.
Adult cattle slaughter is forecast to rise by 16% in 2024 to 8.2 million head, which is the highest figure since 2019. Slaughter will remain relatively stable in 2025 and 2026, said MLA.
“The United States cattle herd is likely to enter 2025 smaller than it was in 2024, a year which saw the herd at its lowest point in 72 years,” Ms Lukey said. “Regardless of when the US enters a rebuild phase, its cattle supply will nevertheless remain low as calving rates during the past five years have been below average and cattle availability has already begun to decline.
“The current beef shortage in the United States will continue to drive demand for Australian beef globally, both in the US as a direct substitute for domestic product, but also in key north Asian export markets where Australia and the US compete for market share.”
In June, the national sheep flock reached 79.1 million head, the largest figure since 2007. This follows four consecutive years of flock recovery and expansion and has been matched by increasingly high slaughter and production numbers, reaching record highs in 2023.
