Australia: record lamb prices were not caused by shortage
Australian lamb prices reached records in 2025, but the supply was not was limited as many believed, according to industry body Meat & Livestock Australia.
Major drivers were quality and finish: well-finished lambs achieved premium prices, but fell below average when the they lacked finish. “This distinction matters because it can create the impression of a widespread shortage, even when overall lamb availability is reasonable,” said Emiliano Diaz, MLA senior market information analyst.
Supply wasn’t collapsing. MLA estimated 2025 lamb production at 610,000 tonnes, 3% below 2024 but still 1.8% above 2023.
“That context suggests the 2025 price outcome was shaped as much by procurement pressure and market demand, as it was by the headline production number,” said Mr Diaz.
Poor weather in southern regions delayed the usual new season flush, contributing to a short-term supply gap, but as spring progressed, new season lambs began to drive market activity and generally achieved stronger prices. “On-farm management decisions that protect finish can be the difference between good and exceptional price outcomes,” he added.
