David Peters delivers some predictions for 2017
20/12/2016
In the column, called ‘Cogitations, the New Year and Zorro’, Mr Peters suggests that there will be increases in the volume of hides available to tanners around the world and that this should help bring the cost of raw material and finished leather down, sparking, in turn, a “rediscovery” of leather among finished product designers, including, he hopes, footwear designers.
After speaking to sources in 18 different countries, David Peters has concluded that cattle slaughter and beef production will rise in 2017 and that, as a result, the US alone will have 1.5 million more hides than it has in 2016.
He explains that demand for leather from the automotive, furniture, handbags and accessories sectors looks good for next year, but warns: “These product segments when added together do not equal the consumption of hides in the shoe sector.” Emphasising the point, he says demand for leather shoes as continues to hold the key to the future hide market.
Seasonally beef production tapers at the end of the year, only to spike in January and then drift down during February and March. “We believe that with the absence of decent leather orders for footwear, hide inventories will accumulate and the market will feel pressured,” our columnist explains. “Expectations are therefore for an early 2017 adjustment in the 3% to 5% range, which will bring US hides down into the $60s. With the major leather buying taking place during the second half of Q1 and into Q2, we expect a slight bounce followed by a more sustained drift downwards during the summer of next year.”
Photo: Messe Düsseldorf, Constanze Tillmann.
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