The EC positive about EU agriculture
The European Commission has published the report "Prospects for agricultural markets in the European Union 2004-2011," which covers prospects of the European Union agricultural markets and the impact of enlargement.
According to the report, EU cereals, meat and dairy markets appear positive due to the CAP reform, favourable world market conditions and an assumed return to a stronger dollar. Barley continues to lose competitiveness especially when compared to soft wheat and maize.
Currently not expanding stock levels are projected to increase but remain on a moderate level over the medium term. The European meat sector has returned to a more normal situation after the extreme market conditions caused by the second BSE scare, the FMD outbreak in 2001 and the avian flu in 2003. The current situation in the beef market, where consumption is higher than domestic production, is expected to persist over the 2004-2011 period.
Pig and poultry production and consumption are expected to keep growing over the medium term, with increased trade flows between the new and old member states. The EU dairy sector is also foreseen to display a gradual improvement after the recent imbalance, with increasing cheese production and consumption and, at the same time, lower availability of butter and skimmed milk powder.
The report also states that agricultural trade within the EU-25 is going to further expand, in particular when regional constraints such as transport costs are overcome. The market situation appears overall positive and agricultural income is projected to increase further. As compared to 2003, the last year before membership, agricultural income per fulltime employed in the new member states is supposed to double by 2011. Without membership agricultural income would decrease from 2006 onwards.
