Bird flu expected to turn into pandemic

29/11/2004

Bird flu, or the H5N1 avian flu virus, is the most likely cause for the next human flu pandemic, according to the head of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) global influenza programme, Dr Klaus Stohr.

 

The expert believes the pandemic is not if a question of “if” but one of “when,” fearing a repetition of the 1918–1919 flu pandemic that took an estimated 20 million human lives. The virus has mutated considerably during the past two years and transferred to other animals, gaining the resilience and versatility to sweep through populations with no immunity. “There are estimates that would put the number of deaths in the range between two and seven million and the number of people affected will go beyond the billions as 25% to 30% will fall ill” Dr Stohr said at the

meeting of health ministers and officials from 13 countries in Bangkok.

 

The virus has raged through much of Asia this year, killing 12 people in Thailand and 20 in Vietnam. More than 100 million poultry have been culled to control the spread of the disease. The two US companies developing a vaccination say it will not be available until March 2005 at the earliest.

 

At the same time, Shigeru Omi, WHO regional director of the Regional Office for Western Pacific, has urged Asian countries to provide full disclosure and strengthen the information-sharing to curb the outbreak. “Chickens are very important for economy for some countries, so it human instinct to protect the interest of the economy” he said, adding that the virus had already spread to much wider areas than predicted.