In previous years, the cycle started with order placement in February and ended in November.   Thanks to economic worries in the US and Europe and the Iraq war, however, this year the cycle didn’t start until April, and then it only lasted to the end of August.

As a result, industry observers are now predicting that only those exporters with the means to cope with the new situation through improved productivity and better fashion forecasting (i.e. the bigger exporters) will survive.  The trend is likely to be driven by a similar shift towards larger buying organisations in Europe and the US, leading to those smaller manufacturers that do survive becoming contract manufacturers for their larger counterparts.

The trend is borne out by the latest figures from Indial’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCIS).  This shows leather and leather product exports were down 6.3% to $1.81 billion in 2002/03, with a 31% fall being seen in the export of leather garments, to $262.25 million.

Though the circumstances that gave rise to the situation are now seen as receding, industry experts say that the new shorter season is here to stay, as new cost control measures based on better inventory management increasingly hold sway.

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