US meat production may decline fractionally in ’04; USDA
According to the latest livestock dairy and poultry outlook from the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA),
With red meat production below year-earlier levels and exports now on the rise, the reports shows cattle prices are expected to continue to register gains again in 2004, with both feeder and fed cattle prices rising due to continuing declining animal numbers. All major meats are expected to post gains both in 2003 and 2004, though beef exports this year will likely be up by less than 1 percent.
Cow slaughter is expected to drop sharply in 2004. Slaughter in 2001 through 2003 averaged near 5.75 million head each year. Slaughter is expected to drop to near 5.3 to 5.4 million head in 2004. Even if forage conditions improve from the drought conditions of the past year, herd expansion may be slow as the industry will still be attempting to rebuild forage/grazing supplies and their financial base in 2004. Beef production in 2004 meanwhile is seen as declining 2 to 3 percent.
Another shift toward record slaughter weights will partially offset declining slaughter levels, particularly female slaughter. An improving forage base and another good grain harvest will be essential to support some shift toward herd expansion and heavier feeding weights, USDA says. At the same time, recovery in the rate of economic growth in the
