Australian beef output expected to bottom out in `03

03/02/2003

Citing the current drought, the marketing organisation Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd has forecast a drop in the country’s beef production and exports this year.  

The prediction is one of several contained in the MLA annual forecasting document, issued today.  And though the document says it expects the rains to return within the next few months, the effects of the drought will continue to be felt for several years.

The document sees Australian beef output falling 7.4% this year to 1,935,000 metric tons carcass weight.  It will hold at this level through 2004, rising to 2,060,000 tons in 2005 as the effects of the drought tail off.  The document attributes this year’s fall not to the drought itself but the decision by producers to retain their livestock once the rains have returned, so as to rebuild their herds.

Beef exports are projected to fall 4.9% to 875,000 tons bone-out, rising to 880,000 tons then to 930,000 tons by 2005, with Asia being the main driver for recovery.  However, this could be upset by a number of factors including a continuation of the drought and new outbreaks of cattle disease.  A stronger Australian dollar and an earlier than expected return to the Pacific Basin market by South American producers could further harm the industry’s prospects for recovery, MLA said.