Study upbeat on Ukrainian economic prospects

07/01/2003

According to a British Economist Intelligence Unit forecast, by 2007 the economic situation in Ukraine will have brightened considerably, having expanded by 4% to 5% per annum in the interim.  However, the population was expected to contract by at least one million during the same period.

The analysts said they believed economic stability was now permanent in the country, noting that growth was likely to be spurred by rising domestic demand and the country’s rigid tax regime. And though inflation was expected to rise after the record lows seen in 2002, it was expected to be kept in check by a stable exchange rate and strict monetary policy.

The study predicted that by 2007, the Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product will have grown by over 20% to 70 billion hryvnas ($13 billion). In the meantime, the hryvna was not expected to lose significant value, staying in the region of 5.8 hryvna per $1 - assuming that nothing untoward happens to the U.S. dollar itself. Taking inflation into account, growth in real wages in 2003/04 was seen as being slower than in the previous two years. However, GDP was expected to improve gradually from the current level of $850, climbing to $1,800 by 2007. Over the same timespan, the Ukrainian population was expected to contract significantly, falling to below 47 million from the current level of 48.416 million.  In the first nine months of 2002 alone, the population fell by nearly 300,000, the survey found.

The unstable political situation was not expected to promote foreign investment while the likelihood of frequent changes in government was seen as distracting ministers from necessary reforms.  The progress seen in privatisation and restructuring of production, as well as in administrative reform, was nevertheless expected to improve the entrepreneurial environment.