According to one estimate, WTO entry will cause 20 million to 25 million job losses in China - 15 million from the closure of more than half the state-owned enterprises, plus 5-10 million farmers whose grain and cotton cannot compete with imports.

Economists in China also suggest that the country’s entry to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will do little to stop local governments protecting their firms by excluding foreign goods. China signed the 900-page membership document in Doha, Qatar, on Sunday at the WTO ministerial meeting. Among the commitments of the document is a promise to treat foreign goods as local ones.

The reality on the ground is that many local and provincial governments in China block or restrict the entry of outside goods – both foreign and Chinese - to ensure people buy from nearby companies the local government owns and taxes. The practice, illegal but widespread even before WTO entry, is unlikely to end immediately.

Ma Yu, an economist at the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation, said the WTO alone would be unable to combat such protectionism, which has caused serious damage to foreign firms in China over the years. "Once a foreign product passes through customs, it encounters Chinese rules. Although China is joining WTO, the force of such local protectionism is very strong and is blocking the creation of a market economy. To wipe it out will require enormous effort on our part," he said.

Mao Shoulong, a professor at People's University, said that while the central Government strongly opposed protectionism, local governments would not act against it on their own. "The centre passes regulations which local authorities are supposed to enact but they do not."

While the leaders in Beijing will crack open the champagne on Sunday, the view from many poor and inland provinces is much different. Worst hit will likely be provinces that have limited private or foreign-invested firms to provide alternative employment and rely heavily on state companies to provide jobs, tax revenue, and housing and medical benefits. As long as the centre cannot meet all these costs, these provinces will continue to support their own companies.