Dry conditions accelerate downward slide in US beef inventories
Expanding drought and continued poor grazing conditions mean the current downward trend in US cattle inventories, set up in 1996, will not bottom out until 2004 at the earliest, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said.
In its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry brief, the Economic Research Service of the USDA paints a picture of an industry biding its time until weather and forage conditions improve, hopefully in the second half of 2001.
With already reduced forage conditions and the worst winter since 1992/93, hay stocks were pulled down sharply during the first half of 2001. As a result, many producers sold their calves early. In addition, large numbers of replacement heifers that likely would have been bred this year were sold for meat as producers attempted to conserve their forage supplies.
As a consequence, cattle on feed inventories in the 7-monthly reporting States with feedlots over 1,000 head of capacity were record-large in June - up 6% from the year-earlier inventory and up 13% from 1999. July’s figures are expected to be even higher as drought conditions showed no sign of letting up. Last Wednesday, for instance, Austin, Texas experienced its 21st consecutive day with temperatures above 100, shattering the former record of 19 days set in 1925.
Now, with most ranchers postponing their herd expansion plans until 2002 at the earliest, the likelihood is that the declining inventory situation will not begin to be reversed until 2004, at which time the offspring of this year’s heifer calves is expected to start the process of stock replenishment.
The current cattle inventory cycle began in January 1991 at 96.4 million cattle, rising to 103.5 million head in January 1996, since when it has declined every year to 97.3 million head on January 1 2001
