Cold winter weather affects US beef supply
In its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry brief, the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture has emphasised the impact of last winter’s cold, wet weather and this year’s early spring on the country’s beef supplies.
The poorer feeding conditions brought on by the weather resulted in slower animal weight gains and therefore fewer cattle being market ready into the first quarter of 2001. Total cattle-on –feed inventories on January 1 and April 1 were up 3% year on year, while during February the adverse weather conditions and one less slaughter day conspired to reduce the marketing pace by 16%. Last month (May 2001) commercial cattle slaughter was down 4% and steer and heifer slaughter down by 5%. However, cow slaughter was up over 6% as producers sought to conserve their rapidly tightening haystocks, which were down 27% on May 1 from a year earlier.
In fact, beef production was down nearly seven percent in the first quarter year-on-year, and the winter of 2000/01 is likely to be recorded as the worst feeding year since 1992/93, the report says.
Combined with strong retail demand - particularly for high quality beef – the adverse supply situation resulted in higher retail prices to the extent that prices rose above their record levels of the early 1990s.
Though the report predicts production will recover in the second quarter, long term, the trend will remain downward as the cycle of declining cattle inventories, set up in 1996, reasserts itself.
The report concludes by saying beef prices will remain strong throughout 2001 – reflecting the tight supply of animals, but that the present price premiums will erode somewhat as feedlot conditions improve and marketings increase. For the year, beef production is expected to be down 4% on 2000’s figure.
