Long term decline in cattle inventories to continue: USDA
According to the latest USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook, beef production can be expected to decline further throughout 2002/03, continuing the trend that has been in place since 1996.
Although production is expected to surge slightly in the second quarter of this year as slaughter levels recover from last winter’s cold weather and an early spring (see leatherbiz.com story: Cold winter weather affects US beef supply 04.06.01), long term the picture is one of declining cattle inventories.
The downward trend has been exacerbated by a sharp increase in cow slaughter during the winter and near-record slaughter of heifers during 2000. Consequently, the number of beef cow replacement heifers calving and entering the herd is expected to be down this year. In addition, on January 1 2001, the number of heifers on feed (and thus not entering the breeding herd) in the seven states that report monthly was up from the large numbers recorded in 2000 and 1999, by 4% and 15% respectively.
For the year, steer and heifer slaughter is expected to decline around 4% to 5%, with beef production falling by around the same margin.
