US Perspective - 14.7.20

14/07/2020
Courtesy of The Maxfield Report
www.themaxfieldreport.com


Packers’ offer lists were slightly more populated last week due to harvest levels running at some of their highest levels of the year, and most producers had a full complement of selections. Asking prices were unchanged, but one tried to obtain slightly higher prices on some of the tanners’ favourite selections. 

The most noticeable change on offer lists were shipping times, which were moved out another couple of weeks. Offers for the end of July on some less popular selections had disappeared, and most shipping times were reading August / September. 

Wet blue producers continue to have well-populated offer lists, with several having perhaps more hides for sale than they are willing to admit. Some have reduced their soaking numbers; however, even with the reduction, the speculation is that they continue to liquidate their weekly production. 

There were not nearly as many bids compared with the week prior, while the widespread interest had dwindled, with mostly Chinese tanners bidding. That said, bids at the start of the week were similar to the past few weeks with tanners bidding prices down $2- $3, while packers insisted on full asking prices. 

It is highly unlikely that packers liquidated their production last week, especially with harvest numbers returning to their highest levels of the year so we might see a few more offers this week. 

Cowhide producers were well populated, with speculation that some had more lower grade selections than they were willing to admit. Asking prices were mostly unchanged. HNDC sellers attempted to achieve slightly higher trading levels based on decent interest. 

The number of bids did not measure up to the week prior, while buyers started the week with ideas lower than the asking prices but producers insisted on trading levels no worse than their last levels.
The sentiment is there were not as many hides sold last week as week prior, so offer lists could be more populated this week. 

THE LOOK AHEAD

We will see another large harvest again this week, as demand for beef continues to exceed even the most optimistic forecasts of most pundits. Much of the Plains has been suffering from high temperatures and excessive humidity – not conducive for holding large numbers of hides. 

Shipment of wet-salted hides, especially from Chinese tanners, continues to fall well short of the harvest, leading to questions as to how long producers can deal with such large harvest numbers and small shipments before falling under the weight of their own unshipped inventory. 

The good news for producers is the automotive business is exhibiting signs of slowly improving, but most side leather tanners appear as if they are struggling for orders. In addition, spiking Covid-19 numbers are forcing some states to re-evaluate their reopening procedures and some have closed some businesses deemed non-essential. We question whether there is enough demand to support the number of hides being produced and the upside of this market appears limited, while the possibility of lower prices looms large.