German Perspective - 26.03.19
26/03/2019
The analysis of which origins and hide types belong to which category has also already been done numerous times. This means that there is no material that could be considered to be in short supply and no tanners scared they might miss out on material they need. The best one can say is that some hide types enjoy sufficient interest to take some pressure off prices. For others, suppliers are refusing to discount prices in their offer lists. They have seen for several months now that cheaper prices do not mean more interest or more sales. It all depends on relations between buyer and seller (new buyers can only be found if tanners feel they can secure an improvement in quality).
For all other types of raw material, things continue to look grim; the size of inventories at all levels that cannot find a home is frightening. Many are now busy talking about issues that they hope can reverse the trend of low consumer demand. Sustainability and traceability are the number-one topics in this respect. No matter how much effort and enthusiasm go into this, we continue to believe that not one extra square-foot of leather will be sold. The argument that consumers are asking for details of the sustainability or traceability of leather is just whistling in the dark to camouflage fear. We still think that 40 kilos of plastic in a dead whale’s stomach is a much better argument for leather if the industry could only learn how to present this. Anyway, all the big players have now focused so much and spent money on sustainability and traceability that it would be obscene for them to change direction or declare that this could be a dead-end. Let us just hope that all the energy spent on the subject is not in vain.
There was also business to be done last week and we were pleasantly surprised by the number of hides sold. This was mainly for better-quality hide types such as heifer and bulls, but that matters little. We continue not to be impressed by the demand for cowhides. From our perspective a strong flurry of activity at the end of January and early February never really found any follow-up and some EU-origin material has already lost a few dollars in price compared to the short-lived peak we saw then. For better-quality hide sales, the prices were steady. For other types, we tend to believe that moderate declines were more likely.
The kill: The kill was not bad, somewhat better than we expected. However, this was mostly for cows.
What we expect: We continue to fail to create a scenario that could turn the market around. Things are stable at best and anyone who needs to move extra quantities has to bite the bullet and take whatever price is offered. This is unlikely to change in the coming weeks and the long-term bear market trend seems to be still intact.
| Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg green weight | Trend |
| Ox/heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 1,60 |
Stable |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,90 | Stable |
|
|
Dairy cows |
15/24,5 kg |
22,5/23,5 kg |
13/22 kg |
20/21 kg |
€ 0,70 |
Weak/Stable |
|
25/29,5 kg |
27,5/28,5 kg |
22/27 kg |
25/26 kg |
€ 0,60 |
Weak/Stable | |
|
30/+kg |
33,5/35,5 kg |
27/+kg |
29/31 kg |
€ 0,55 |
Stable | |
| Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/ 27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 1,40 |
Pressure |
| 30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 1.40 |
Pressure |
|
| 40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+kg | 38/40 kg | € 1.25 |
Pressure |
|
| Thirds | 15/+kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,40 |
Stable |
| Thirds bulls | 30/+kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,60 |
Weakish |
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