New report says meat consumption and production will - leatherbiz: Lea Leatherbiz

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New report says meat consumption and production will continue to grow

07/06/2013
Meat prices will remain high over the next decade due to “changing market fundamentals” of slower production growth and stronger demand. This is one of the main meat-related findings of a new report compiled jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Entitled Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022, the report looks at global development of demand and production of all major agricultural commodities for the next decade.

What the two organisations refer to “market tightening” has arisen for meat from the combined effect of high feed-grain prices over the past six years, which have substantially moved through the supply chain leading to reduced livestock producer margins and depleted livestock inventories in some of the major meat producing countries. At the same time, demand remains firm from rising incomes and population growth, particularly in the biggest emerging economies and, more generally, in many other developing countries.

Linked to this, the report suggests that approximately 80% of the additional meat that the world will produce between now and 2022 will be produced in developing countries. The report has a special focus on China, and the OECD and FAO chose Beijing as the venue for their presentation of the document, available globally from June 26.

Overall, though, global meat production is expected to grow at a more moderate pace over the next decade, constrained by higher input costs and competing demand for land and water from alternative crops. Meat production will still grow, but only at 1.6% per annum, compared to 2.3% per annum in the previous decade; the report suggests this slowing in growth will affect the poultry sector the most.

“World meat consumption continues to enjoy one of the highest rates of growth among major agricultural commodities,” the two organisations say. In Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the report predicts there will be a gain in average meat consumption of four kilos per person per year, and if India is excluded, the rise will be eight kilos. In those fast developing economies, average meat consumption in those countries will reach 60 kilos per person per year by 2022, compared to 66 kilos in the OECD area, which comprises 34 mainly high-income economies in all parts of the world.

The report goes on to say that world meat exports are expected to increase by 19% by 2022.



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