FAO predicts higher beef production in developing countries
11/05/2012
“Disease outbreaks in 2011, drought-reduced cattle inventories and high feed costs sustained international meat prices to near record levels in the first quarter of 2012,” the Rome-based organisation said. But it added that prices may fall in the coming months because import demand, especially for poultry and pork, is slowing. At the same time, though, feed prices remain high and the FAO has said packer firms are concerned about the prospects for profitability over the year as a whole.
Specific to the segment of the global meat market that is of greatest concern to the leather industry, the FAO said beef production is “forecast to stagnate at around 67.5 million tonnes in 2012, as progress in developing countries is offset by contraction of output in developed countries”.
It expects production to increase in Latin America and the Caribbean (which it analyses as one region) and in Asia, with some gains also foreseen in Oceania. Beef production is forecast to decline in North America and in Europe.
In Asia, India will lead a beef expansionary drive thanks to three new export-oriented slaughter and processing facilities that opened in 2011. In the South Korea, government incentives to slaughter low-performing cows are the main reason for an anticipated 27% jump in beef output this year.
In Latin America, it says output will rebound this year after two years of decline. This is largely thanks to recovering output in Brazil, but in Argentina, despite the closure of almost a quarter of its meat plants over the past three years and a drop in cattle numbers to their lowest since 2007, a drought-induced rise in slaughter numbers may prompt a 3% production increase. In Uruguay, tight cow supply and a lack of suitable steers have reduced slaughter to a four-year low, while Paraguay is struggling in the wake of last year’s foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
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