Herd size and beef consumption to fall in the US

17/02/2012
High feed prices, the economic recession, and drought in the Southern Plains of the US have combined to reduce livestock farmers’ returns, according to a new report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

As a result, total US red meat production is projected to fall in 2012 and 2013. Combined with increasing exports, the result will be a decline in domestic per capita consumption of red meat and fall in the national cattle herd size to below 91 million head.

Despite improved returns for cow-calf operators in 2010 and 2011, strong demands for feeder
cattle and cows for slaughter led to continued declines in beef cow inventories through the start of 2012. Reduced beef cow inventories and heifer retention during 2012 are expected to lead to declines in beef production through 2013 and only a small increase in 2014.

After that, though, USDA expects beef production to rise as returns will support continued herd expansion. Beef cow numbers will rise from about 30 million head at the beginning of 2012 to more than 34 million in the last years of this decade.

Total cattle inventory will expand to about 97 million head by the start of the following decade.