Intelligence

German Perspective - 15.07.08

15/07/2008


What happened this week: This week was the first in a long row of non-normal trading weeks. Not that one could say that a breakthrough has occurred, but at least the activity of communication and trading was something similar to what we were used to until April of this year.

 

However, the improvement was not for all items, only for a limited selection of hides, and this week it was for males. Under the shelter and support of the US market a lot of buyers from Asia remembered that there were some other pretty attractive alternatives on the other side of the Atlantic.

 

What started slowly on Monday ended with a decent amount of interest and sales towards the end of the week. The interest was widespread throughout Asia and all markets bought what they favoured most. Prices were pretty mixed. While some selections fetched a decent premium above European levels, other prices were just about interesting enough to move some product during the summer season.

 

The weaker US dollar towards the end of the week did not help much in the calculations. However, considering that the market for salted material is almost non-existent—no one could be too optimistic about any shipments of salted material during the coming six-to-eight weeks in Europe—it was attractive enough to book some bids without too much negotiation. For females there was again very little activity this week and with horror stories from Italy and the garment and upholstery trade almost blocked in China, one cannot have much hope for these market segments for the immediate future.

 

However, one way or the other it is going to be interesting to see how things are developing in this sector. Many are reporting that the fashion for women’s boots is going to continue into the next season. While many Chinese manufacturers experimented with sheep and goat for shafts—and failed of course—because the raw material was cheaper they have now to take a decision on what to use next time.

 

With the reduced price of cowhides, these could at least be an alternative. At the same time, many of the upholstery tanneries in China are experimenting and trying to find new clients in the footwear sector, a similar shift to the one we saw some years ago when many tanners first moved into the upholstery market.

 

Selling prices this week were mixed. Sales into Europe could only be carried out at further moderate discounts while sales into Asia were really mixed. Some grades fetched decent premiums over the European levels while others remained at around asking prices. The situation in the footwear trade seems still to be reasonably steady while the upholstery and garment segments have shown no change in their weak performance.

 

The kill:  Week by week more regions of Germany are heading into their annual school holidays and consequently numbers are continuing to fall, as are hide weights, leaving us in a typical summer situation. Until mid-August there should really be no change in this situation, and with the general rise of food prices, beef could be hurt even more.

 

What we expect: With the US steer market still in good condition and the footwear business still adequate, we might have a chance to reach a floor for the male market into the summer. It would still require further adjustments, but at least there is a chance. For cows we are less optimistic; we could still see further adjustments needed mainly when further cash-flow problems reach the market in the summer.