Market Intelligence-March 3, 2008
03/03/2008
Market Intelligence—US Perspective
The Jacobsen Commentary and Market Opinion – 29.02.08
Courtesy of www.thejacobsen.com
The US market was locked in a stalemate last week as packers appeared to have no interest in trading hides lower, while buyers refused to offer packers their full asking prices.
Meanwhile, the problems with empty containers and available space on outgoing vessels continue so those who had goods they could load promptly were able to take advantage of the situation and buy hides at levels $2-$3 lower than the official asking price of packers. In comparison, those buyers who were attempting to buy hides for the April/May timeframe at similar levels were seeing their attempts brushed aside by packers.
With regard to trading levels over the past week, we would call the HNS market $65-$65.50, although there are isolated reports that some of the regular weekly programme business was bringing levels as high as $66, albeit in limited volume. Packers were attempting to book business on HTS at $65 or slightly higher last week, with most buyers looking to book this selection at levels fifty cents to a dollar lower than this.
We had BS reported in a range last week from $63-$64 with a majority of the trade of the opinion that $64 was difficult to obtain in volume. BBS are bringing levels in the range of $64-$64.50, while CBS are believed no better than $62-$62.50.
On female selections, there does not appear much change as we have heard reports of HNH around $58-$59, while their branded counterparts are reported to be trading around the $56-$57 range.
Trading levels over the past week are indicating that HNDC are still somewhere in the $57 neighbourhood, while HNC are trading around $52-$53. The problematic selection we continue to hear about are HBC. We have heard of at least a few producers attempting to get themselves into a better position and this has resulted in rumours of trading somewhere close to $40-$41. Others insist they can still obtain $44, but we question if they can achieve this level in volume.
Bulls remain in demand and this has resulted in prices inching higher as we have heard trading on Brands as high as $55, while interest on Natives has yielded reports as high as $62 or slightly better.
The big news in the US is the economy and whether or not the US is either on the brink of a recession or has already entered into a recession. This question is dominating the financial markets and this, coupled with reports of record agricultural prices, $102 barrel oil and a slumping housing market has many people sceptical as to what the next few months might hold.
From The Agcenter.com
March 3, 2008
A winter blast moved across the plains. Snow and wind stressed cattle both in pens and outside. Cattle owners will turn their attention to marketing cattle at higher prices this week. Good volumes and higher slaughter-rates should create show-lists that are manageable. Beginning asking prices for cattle will be at $95 and higher.
Box prices remain steady. The box market has traded in a very narrow trading range for the past month. Choice cuts were quoted at $150 slightly firmer. Select cuts inched higher $147. The choice/select spread was $3, after touching $1 in what was probably a seasonal low.
Feeder futures are showing signs of weakness in spite of smaller available supplies from wheat fields. High grain prices and large losses on current sales are taking a toll on replacement interest. Northern feeders pulled heavily from Canada resulting in 850-pound steers delivering into Colorado and Nebraska at $95. At the same time 750-pound steers were bringing $103 in the southern plains.
Corn prices set contract-highs last week. Monday markets are 15 cents higher for corn. Current price-levels for corn have initiated cutbacks in both poultry and pork. This spring cattle placements are expected to dwindle.
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