Intelligence

Friedrich Sturm Report - 30.03.07

04/04/2007
 
What happened this week: Those who expected APLF in Hong Kong to change the general pattern of the market are going to be disappointed. As usual, there will be a number of reports complaining about visitor numbers and activity, but we tend not to agree. The fair had its busy and less busy periods, but it is not a question of how much and how many; it is also about what you do. In the end, we found hardly anyone complaining about activity and work during the show. So the general meeting of the trade simply confirmed that leather demand remains good and the prospects—at least until the summer—remain fairly positive.

There is still no word on missing leather orders and the only concern continues to be profitability. So, those who came to the show in the hope that it could be the turning point for lower raw material prices came in vain. And those who thought that prices could be lifted to much higher levels probably did the same. As far as the critical question of how much business was done is concerned, we tend to believe it was not much. Origins on the high side of the price range were probably not rewarded with many sales, and sales seemed to be sporadic and more a matter of keeping up relationships than a real ambition to generate larger contracts. Those origins that could be still considered ‘reasonable’ in the present global price structure were able to select from the customer interest. Those on the higher side of the price range had to sit and consider lower bids, which were mostly refused. So the trade volume was limited because the ‘attractive’ origins had little to sell and the expensive ones received few bids that met their price ideas.

Again, the sales that were generated were mainly for dairy cows, ox/h and low grades. Prices were steady and in some cases a fraction higher. The impact of the $ bouncing up and down during the week did not assist in calculations either. So, in the case of European suppliers, net returns did not really advance despite the fundamentally positive situation. As far as the closed society of extra heavy European hides were concerned, it has generally been agreed that prices will finally go down and will readjust to levels in line with the general price structure of the market. When this process has been finalised in the weeks to come, these hides will also find their floor again and the situation should normalise in view of the lower kill in the second quarter. The situation in the ovine section was brighter. The drama of 2006 finally seems to be over and, in view of the high cattle hide prices, skins are gaining ground once again in leather production, particularly for the ladies’ shoe sector. Prices still remain pretty low, but at least productions can be placed and the outlook for the year is improving. So, at the end of the show, the only the problem that remained for the tanning industry was profitability and we tend to believe that no solution for this has been uncovered as yet.

The kill: The kill continues to fall in Germany. Warm weather and margin issues in the beef industry are dominating. Farmers are not rushing to sell animals at prices they consider to be unattractive and, in view of the approaching holidays, it is unlikely that there will be many changes. Falling hide weights and the decline in the extra heavy weight market must now be reflected by adjusting abattoir prices.

What do we expect: We would not be surprised if market activity drops off in the coming weeks. The low kill and Easter holidays will limit action. In Europe, the industry will be busier discussing abattoir prices rather than focusing on the selling of material. So prices are likely to stay trapped and driven by currency rather than by market activity.

 

Type

Weight range

Avg. green weight

Salted weight

Avg. weight salted

Price per kg green weight

Trend

Ox/heifers

15/24.5 kg

22.0/23.5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1.75

Steady

 

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.60

Steady

Dairy cows

15/24.5 kg

22.5/23.5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1.65

Steady

 

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.50

Steady

 

30/+      kg

33.5/35.5 kg

27/+   kg

29/31 kg

€ 1.36

Steady

Bulls

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/ 27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.75

Steady

 

30/39.5 kg

36.0/37.0 kg

24/34 kg

31/33 kg

€ 1.68

Steady

 

40/+      kg

45.0/48.0 kg

34/+   kg

38/40 kg

€ 1.54

Steady

Thirds

15/+      kg

25.0/27.5 kg

13/+   kg

24/26 kg

€ 1.25

Steady

Thirds bulls

30/+      kg

38.0/40.0 kg

24/+   kg

33/36 kg

€ 1.25

Steady