Intelligence

Friedrich Sturm Report - 19.01.07

23/01/2007

What happened this week:
After last week’s market activity, things have been more ‘down-to-earth’ this week. However, not much has really changed yet as the balance of supply and demand is not out of order with a week of reduced sales numbers. Despite this, the situation involves a mysterious mixture of impressions. The number of inquiries remains impressive and they are mainly still coming from shoe tanners and growing interest from the Middle East. It seems they are enjoying an increasing level of business as well and are not disposing of enough or adequate raw material in their domestic or regional traditional supply base. Most of them are finding it pretty surprising and disappointing that their overtures to become a new customer and buyer is not immediately welcomed due to the lack of supply or acceptable price levels. In the Orient, interest in experimenting with dairy cows for side leather production is also rising.

The situation in Central Europe is slightly different. Although there is still isolated interest for hides, there is significantly more resistance and tanners are really trying to bid the market down, particularly in Italy. With some temporary success in buying selected hide types at slightly lower levels in recent weeks, they have found this sufficiently encouraging to test whether this could also work on a broader base. With most suppliers being well cleaned up there was not too much enthusiasm as far as the sellers were concerned, but it was worth a try at least.

This might not apply to the entire market. The only area where there might have been some accumulation of hides was in south eastern Europe, and these sellers being focused on the Italian market obviously found it quite surprising that buyers were heading in the opposite direction as far as prices were concerned. We understand that a number of sellers spent almost the entire week trying to convince their regular buyers in the Mediterranean that the market is firm and they had to accept the asking levels of the suppliers. It doesn’t seem that they were able to overcome the gap as the week wound down and the biggest problems are said to be for skins between 5-18 kgs and extra heavy bullhides.          The good news during the week came from the lamb and sheepskin market. Despite all the negative impressions, interest from all over is continuously improving. There is still a struggle on prices, and still no fun, but one gets the impression that fashion and the attractive price levels, plus rising wool prices, are starting to influence the situation. At least it seems that skins are being considered again. The rest of the market has not presented any further impressions. The outlook for consumer goods is still said to be positive and positive reports were also heard from the Cologne Furniture fair. We believe that the mood is actually better than the real situation and it is important to analyse which market segments are really benefiting.

The kill: The kill remains on the lower, albeit normal, seasonal levels. The slaughter mix is missing a certain percentage of males at the moment which does not fit well into the market environment. This puts butchers into a comfortable sales position and leads to overheated abattoir prices.

What do we expect: there is still no reason for a change from the supply and demand level, but we can sense the rising resistance from the tanning industry. This is still really not enough to make the market move lower and this may still take a while, but the upside momentum has certainly stopped. Some exclusive items are even ready for a correction for which the mainstream market might still need a bit more time. So, in general, the steady trend for the main items will continue with some minor variations now becoming possible, influenced by the currency market.

 

Type

Weight range

Avg. green weight

Salted weight

Avg. weight salted

Price per kg green weight

Trend

Ox/heifers

15/24.5 kg

22.0/23.5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1.80

Steady

 

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.60

Steady

Dairy cows

15/24.5 kg

22.5/23.5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1.65

Steady

 

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.50

Steady

 

30/+      kg

33.5/35.5 kg

27/+   kg

29/31 kg

€ 1.40

Settling

Bulls

25/29.5 kg

27.5/28.5 kg

22/ 27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1.65

Steady

 

30/39.5 kg

36.0/37.0 kg

24/34 kg

31/33 kg

€ 1.70

Steady

 

40/+      kg

45.0/48.0 kg

34/+   kg

38/40 kg

€ 1.58

Steady

Thirds

15/+      kg

25.0/27.5 kg

13/+   kg

24/26 kg

€ 1.25

Steady

Thirds bulls

30/+      kg

38.0/40.0 kg

24/+   kg

33/36 kg

€ 1.25

Steady