Intelligence

Friedrich Sturm Report - 24.09.04

27/09/2004

What happened this week: The market situation continues in its normal seasonal pattern. Sellers’ expectations and ability to recognise trends does not correspond with their business plans, creating market imbalances in supply and demand as well as in prices. Trading in hides is difficult at the moment but still possible and successful at times. The week was, however, a disappointment in terms of hides sold. The entire interest came from shoe-upper and leather goods tanners and the trend is looking stable and consistent, attracting medium to high quality products. It also has to be added that new emerging markets are the main buyers at the moment, while the traditional ones in Europe and the Far East remain sidelined. The upholstery business is still in the doldrums. The mainstream is struggling with massive price pressure and lack of long-term programmes except for specialty, high quality niches which are performing well. This has forced a lot of European tanners to cut production and many escaped into shorter working hours. We assume there is a similar situation in Asia. The warning of this production cycle change has not been echoed by the raw material trade, particularly by butchers, leading to high price levels in August/September that have prevented many tanners to follow the raw material market for upholstery hides and created a market vacuum. Hence, there is no agreement on an adequate price level for cows today. Gossip rules and many are spreading news to move prices to match their own needs. Sales concentrated entirely on males and heifers. Abattoir prices remained steady but on absolutely insufficient levels and we repeat that it is necessary to re-adjust them. This has failed again in the south of the country in the present round of the last eight weeks. Cow sales were isolated and far from the levels required for this time of the year. In this market segment we still have to be patient until productions return to normal levels, unlikely before the second half of October. If the information from consumer markets is true we have to expect another season with strictly limited prices. The kill: nothing special. Total number fell back again this week and, despite the bad weather and high prices for live cattle, it seems that farmers are not yet willing to offer more than the normal numbers. What do we expect? The market for bulls and heifers seems to be in a normal shape in the context of price restrictions. We expect prices to vary within the small range valid for the year. Cows are searching for their trading level which we feel is about 5-10 % below what is desired. However, all this is speculation, as Asian tanners have to return to normal production first to absorb the present kill.

 

Type

Weight range

Avg. green weight

Salted weight

Avg. weight salted

Price per kg green weight

Trend

Ox/heifers

15/24,5 kg

22,0/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1,55

Weaker

 

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,43

Weaker

Dairy cows

15/24,5 kg

22,5/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1,55

Weaker

 

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,42

Weaker

 

30/+      kg

33,5/35,5 kg

27/+   kg

29/31 kg

€ 1,26

Weaker

Bulls

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/ 27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,55

Pressure

 

30/39,5 kg

36,0/37,0 kg

24/34 kg

31/33 kg

€ 1,50

Pressure

 

40/+      kg

45,0/48,0 kg

34/+   kg

38/40 kg

€ 1,40

Pressure

Thirds

15/+      kg