Intelligence

Friedrich Sturm Market Report 18.06.04

21/06/2004

What happened this week:

 

This was another week when currency trading decisions were more important than hide trading operations. Business was concentrated on the renewal of regular programmes with European customers. But this was more difficult than ever before as most tanners tried to use the holiday season as a reason to hide away or sit the negotiations out in an attempt to depress sellers and the market. It was therefore difficult to get to satisfying results. Forward positions were reasonable and the expectation of a low kill for the holiday season, combined with steady prices almost all over the world, kept positions under very tight control and price variations within tight limits. It is clear that access to credits and finance has become significantly tighter in China. Letter of credits are coming in slower and extended payment terms are now the norm. Even in Asia, leather price negotiations have become difficult. Buyers here are also increasingly trying to find cheaper alternatives to their regular raw material supplies. So the process of downgrading the quality of raw materials to meet finished leather target prices continues.  One has to speculate how far the process can be driven, since it definitely has limits. In the meantime, the middle price section for finished leathers has almost completely disappeared. For German hides, this is a temporary problem, but in the end, as ever, market developments will be the main determinant. For the time being, prices remain reasonably well protected, because alternatives to German hides are not cheaper and in many cases they are even more expensive. So, if one has no specific preferences and needs to cover raw material, the German hide is still one of the favoured options. This has in the past weeks been the main reason why sales been made. So, the best performance this week was again to be found in the sidelines. Garment leathers seem to have a good season in front of them. Skins are being bought, despite the same difficult price discussion as with hides, but one can feel the interest is being backed by demand for leather. The flurry of interest for cheaper light weight material has disappeared, but for the next season and the time after the summer holidays, one can also be a bit more optimistic. Fashion seems to work for us. The kill: The kill wasn’t even bad this week. For the time of the year and forecasts being made, production was above expectations. However, this seems to be regional as reports from different areas are not the same. Published forecasts for the next 6-8 weeks are very pessimistic with strong influences of the holidays being expected. What do we expect? As long as no single market sets a really new trend, nothing will change. We believe cows will see more difficulties in the next weeks and need another round of buying from Asia, while males face resistance, but in the end they will trade around the levels that have been in place for a while. Price changes will continue to be more a result of external influences, rather than changes in the market.

 

Type

Weight range

Avg. green weight

Salted weight

Avg. weight salted

Price per kg green weight

Trend

Ox/heifers

15/24,5 kg

22,0/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1,55

Softer

 

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,37

Softer

Dairy cows

15/24,5 kg

22,5/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1,50

Steady

 

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,36

Steady

 

30/+      kg

33,5/35,5 kg

27/+   kg

29/31 kg