What happened this week: This week was a very short one and also not extremely eventful. As nice holidays may be, as difficult they are in Europe where holidays are spread around the countries and are not coordinated. Single holidays after Easter f.e. in Italy, Holland and the general May holiday interrupted the normal flow of business, productions and deliveries. Holidays now also in Asia do not allow a clear picture about the situation. However, the trading pattern was again similar to the previous weeks. Demand for dairy cows from Asia remained strong and for the first time in 2003 we have turned orders down, because their would be no realistic chance to deliver the quantities desired. A similar situation we have also already with heavy bullhides where the declining kill is now showing its effects. The standard production requires more hides than presently are produced. Having said this it has also to be admitted, that tanners have become much more selective in their buying. Questionable suppliers and origins are neglected

and so we have reached the point were ‘qualified material’ is short or just enough, while ‘non qualified’ hides are still available in reasonable numbers. Consequently have selected buyers and sellers a different, but justified reason for the disagreement about the market situation. Both statements, that hides are in abundant supply and short are true and correct and everyone has just to clarify what he is talking about. We renew our statement, that qualified material is in short supply today, despite the falling price trend which has different reasons. Sales this week were again good. Some long term supply contracts for bulls were renewed at about 2-3 % lower levels. South German abattoirs are still wrestling for their new levels for the next two months and declines have to be much larger to cover the declines which have taken place since the last round more than two months ago. Bid for dairy cows were plenty and one has to accept, that the USD 50 mark could be seen again shortly. If so, not much help with the USD falling rapidly and so revenues in € remain under under pressure and higher asking levels from Europe

assist the US suppliers to increase their prices. The rest of the world remained driven by emotions about the eventual effect of the SARS situation in Asia. Where many and different opinions are bouncing around The kill: Still very low. The holiday on Thursday reduced numbers massively. The latest statistics released showed a decline of the German kill of abt. 12 % in the first quarter. Speaks for itself as far as the supply is concerned. The coming weeks should lead to a more regular situation again, but in general is the second quarter always low – in numbers and in weights. What do we expect?  Next week many will travel to Bologna- the first occasion for the trade to gather since long. Since HK has been left out, it could well be that the Fair and the exchange of news and opinions face to face might be this time more important than before and could trigger new developments. We think, that constantly more pressure is lifted from the market than many believe. However, the Asian dairy cow market is already oversold and only the buyers of bulls maintain presently control of the market, but for how much longer....

Dairy cows

15/24,5 kg

22,5/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

€ 1,95

Firmer

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

€ 1,75

Firmer

30/+      kg

33,5/35,5 kg

27/+   kg

29/31 kg

€ 1,39

Steady