A month ago we wrote about the outbreak of a new conflict in the Middle East. It must be noted, quite soberly, that little has fundamentally changed in terms of our overall assessment. However, our hope at the time that this would be a short-lived escalation, with neither severe nor long-term consequences, has unfortunately not materialised. Although a ceasefire was officially announced, it has neither been consistently upheld nor has it led to any meaningful de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah persist, and between Iran, the US, and the Gulf States there is little indication of a stable or credible ceasefire or peaceful stability.

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