This week: The two dominant events of the week were the new war in the Middle East and the APLF exhibition in Hong Kong. It is debatable which had a greater influence on trade during the week. Several people were unable to attend the show because they had booked flights from or via the war zone. Others decided not to come because alternative flights were too expensive, or because they felt it would no longer be appropriate to fly. Arriving in Hong Kong, just one floor was enough to host all the exhibitors from all sectors.

The number of visitors seemed somewhat better. At least in the covered space, the aisles were well filled, which, in our opinion, means that the location was attractive enough to travel to, and offered the opportunity to meet and greet, as well as the chance to gossip and gain more insight into the situation. There was little Chinese attendance. 

As far as business was concerned, agents had obviously been instructed by buyers to first get a feel for what the latest global developments meant for sellers’ intentions, emotions and mood. At best, the low bids seen over the past few weeks were repeated, and met with the same resistance as before. We realised that our colleagues had adopted an even more optimistic approach, reflected in their ambitious asking prices. We don’t know how successful they were during the show, but by lunchtime on day two, we had secured some sales of cows at prices that were still below our asking prices from the previous week. At least, however, our offers were accepted after many long phone conversations between the agents and their customers.

Combined with the firming US dollar and additional freight charges owing to fuel surcharges, the outcome was not ideal, but better than it had been since Lunar New Year in February.

The second event, the conflict in the Middle East, was far less prominent in discussions than one might have expected. There was shock and a rising concern that this could be another step towards dragging the world into war. This was combined with the concern that it might not end as quickly as some of the combatants claim.

It was nice to see old friends from other parts of the world again, to reflect and exchange ideas and opinions. Without the war, the mood could have been more optimistic for the leather business, and bringing a few sales home is possibly better than what people staying at home might have expected.

The kill: There is not much to say about the kill; the numbers just fluctuate around the figures we have seen for some time. We understand that demand from supermarkets and restaurants is low, and we must also expect an impact from beef exports to the Middle East. After the long, cold period in January and the first half of February, we have had warmer temperatures, well above the March norms, for the last two weeks. The grass is starting to grow and, although there could still be a cold spell, cattle can generally smell the meadows and grass. Given the current milk prices, it would not be surprising to see a period of increased cow slaughter over the next six to eight weeks.

What we expect: The next few weeks will be very interesting. On the one hand, Asian buyers need to decide on exports to deliver leather for finished products to be shipped for the winter season, and on the other hand, the effects of the war and energy prices on consumer spending and consumption in war zones will be discussed. The world always carries on somehow, but the situation is becoming so complex that clear and quick conclusions cannot really be expected. Therefore, matters could change on a day-to-day basis for some time. 

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