This week: The German hide market has been quiet. The focus has been on purchases at slaughterhouses for the month of October but, unfortunately, there were no meaningful price concessions. It is obvious that this is less market-related and more an ongoing strategic move by various players. When economics do not rule, commercial logic goes into the background. On the sales side, most activity was simply an extension of existing programmes, with only a handful of ad-hoc, opportunistic deals.

What also stood out was that many tanners are now buying with even tighter, more specific requirements. With plenty of raw material around, buyers are increasingly trying to cover only the items for which firm orders still exist. That makes sense in theory, but with cattle hides it rarely works well in practice. A natural raw material that isn’t produced for its own sake does not lend itself to that approach.

Overall trading volumes were low but the market remained functional. Prices hardly moved and mostly stayed flat, though that doesn’t mean every lot can be sold straight away. Heavy male selections held steady. In this segment, buyers who do not primarily make finished leather still tend to set the tone. There are no real concerns about supply; availability from slaughterhouses is adequate and logistics are normal. Demand from Asia was clearly weaker owing to the early-October holidays, and many market participants there were taking a wait-and-see stance.

Across Europe, talk about the future of the leather industry is growing louder. Many tanneries report fewer orders and are running below capacity. At the same time, the non-leather space, especially the protein sector, keeps gaining importance. From Italy, the news about order books and production is also rather downbeat. In short, sales were mostly limited to renewing ongoing programmes plus a few one-off opportunities.

There is no standstill, but there is little extra demand on top of the basics. As a result, prices remain unchanged; occasionally there are small discounts for quick lifting, but no broad shift in direction. The uplift in the US dollar was also shortlived with a fall on Friday afternoon owing to new trade disputes beteen China and the US.

The kill: Over the week, slaughter activity increased slowly, but without any notable rise in total numbers. Livestock prices eased a little. The weather remains mild for the season; nights are cooler, but there is still no reason to expect a clear jump in beef consumption at this moment, or for farmers to bring more animals to market at short notice. Pricing also shows a gap: export returns remain well above retail prices in Germany. Processors say they would like to produce more, but current economics and the available supply of cattle do not make it feasible right now.

What we expect: Near-term, more of the same, with a slight downside risk as long as Asia stays cautious and European tanneries remain under-utilised. A clearer recovery looks possible only if stronger signals come from Asia or seasonal effects kick in. There are selective opportunities in programme top-ups at attractive terms and in the protein segment; the main risks are weak utilisation for leather in Europe and prolonged caution in Asia in particular, owing to renewed trade tensions between China and the US.

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