This week: In Europe, the number of potential discussion partners has now slowly begun to increase again. However, the discussions are not necessarily yielding big news or the insights so many had hoped for regarding an improved order situation in the leather industry. It is simply still too early for that, and it remains unclear why many are seriously expecting new and hard facts to be available before mid-October.

From this perspective, the situation is neither positive nor negative, and we are ultimately in the same position as we were before the holidays began. However, it remains true that no one, either at home or abroad, really expects leather demand to rise beyond the seasonal recovery in the coming months. Too many uncertainties are weighing on the situation, and the only thing that almost every leather manufacturer is saying at the moment is that almost all leather buyers are expecting lower prices.

This desire may be understandable, but leather buyers should also realise that, at a certain point, the price of leather can no longer be pushed down. Of course, it may still be possible to force someone to sell below cost, but in the long run, no one will be happy about doing so.

In addition to the question of the sheer volume of leather orders, the mix of items and ranges is also a major concern. Tanners have to get the whole range out of the door somehow. In our opinion, this has not been working well for quite some time now. So there is a lot that needs to be worked on and possibly re-sorted for the new season after the holidays.

It is not only the supply and demand parameters that are currently influencing business, but also the diverse geopolitical influences and the erratic customs policy of the US government, which make truly fact-based analysis of the market almost impossible at present.

All we can do is take the impressions from Asia and then probably carry on with business as usual until the Lineapelle fair in Milan at the end of September. Then, at some point, the moment will come when the realities become apparent.

In business terms, it was another relatively quiet week, limited almost exclusively to the cautious and virtually unchanged continuation of existing supply contracts in Europe.

The kill: Slaughter numbers remain relatively low. Prices for livestock and also for meat have risen again, and in the end, all of this is really just a reflection of what we are seeing in many countries around the globe. The particularly European desire that demand for beef and thus livestock farming should reduce in the long term is not happening anywhere, at least not at this point in time. Consumers are still behaving differently from the way EU policy-makers would like. Presumably, only price can seriously limit demand and, thus, production.

What we expect: As you can easily see from the previous points, we do not expect any change this week. If anything, the mood and impressions from the All China Leather Exhibition in Shanghai (September 3-5) may have an impact on the market at the end of the week. But will that actually be the case? The market has not reacted seriously to almost anything for quite some time, so our expectations are quite subdued in this regard as well.

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