This week: Reporting on the market is not really much fun at the moment. How could it be, because on the one hand activity is very low and on the other hand we are currently excluded from many export markets owing to foot and mouth disease. Fortunately, not from all of them, because for those countries that do not require government-approved certificates, the necessary adjustments can be made with the relevant import authorities. The problem of foot-and-mouth disease is becoming increasingly unclear at the moment. Since the one case in a buffalo herd at the beginning of January, there have been no further infections. On the one hand, this is extremely pleasing, as the spread of the disease would have had catastrophic consequences. But on the other hand it is also somewhat strange.

The probability that there have been no further infections from wild animals is relatively low. With the close monitoring and multiple tests that have been carried out, it is also relatively unlikely that further cases could have gone undetected.

This of course raises the question of whether it is possible that the virus detected was not foot-and-mouth at all. We will never know and therefore we can only hope that Germany can soon be considered disease-free again in accordance with animal health regulations. We will have to wait and see whether this will be immediately accepted by all countries. In the meantime, the goods will find their way if they want to.

The market at the abattoirs is unmoved by all these developments, and anyone expecting price reductions must be disappointed at the moment. We are slowly moving towards the Lineapelle trade fair in Milan (February 25-27), which will give an impression of the situation in the leather industry, as always, and an indicator of the mood.

All the news that can be gathered from Europe at the moment does not point to any real improvement in orders in the leather industry. It gives the impression that people are actually more concerned with political developments at the moment than looking ahead with confidence to business developments in the coming months. Too much is and remains unclear; the tariff war is still one of the smaller problems at the moment.

With regard to sales this week, we can only report that very little happened overall, but whatever had to be bought and sold was transacted at unchanged price levels. The extent to which these transactions are representative is left to the view and opinion of each individual.

The kill: The published slaughter figures for 2024 for Germany were almost at the same level as 2023 at 3 million head of cattle. Predicted declines did not materialise and the start of this year did not show any change in the trend. Prices for live cattle are continuing to rise, the demand for meat is described as good, especially from export markets, and the supply of live cattle as too low. In order to utilise their capacities, slaughterhouses can currently only buy sufficient livestock by offering high prices. The prices in the food retail trade hardly reflect this development so far.

What we expect: It is really difficult at the moment to assume that the fundamental paralysis of the market could change much. However, it is also true that the longer nothing changes, the higher the probability is of a change and possibly also of a surprising and significant change. We believe that this has been overdue for some time, but so far nothing has materialised and it is possible that there will not be a reaction until after the trade fair in Milan.

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