German Perspective – 23.04.24
This week: Deliveries last week were difficult and very slow. Of course, interest is never zero and as long as tanneries are producing, they have to work continuously to meet the available supply. Nevertheless, the negotiations are very tough and the reluctance is increasing, especially in Asia. This is justified by sufficient stocks and unsatisfactory orders for leather.
At this time of year, this is unusual. The question is about the situation regarding leather orders for the new season, which does not start until after the summer holidays. Not a single tanner in China will have to think about additional purchases in the next six weeks to secure production. What is not already covered by raw materials can be secured by local stocks of semi-finished goods.
With falling prices in many competing provenances, the negotiating position as a seller in China is also becoming increasingly difficult. Although many suppliers are still officially reporting different claims, the truth is that customers currently have a sufficient choice of options and are always able to find suppliers who are prepared to make price concessions if necessary. This is not leading to a collapse, but the price trend, which was stable until a few weeks ago, is now slowly starting to point in the other direction again.
The pressure is not only coming from the alternatives in Europe, but overseas suppliers are also opting to accept price concessions at the moment in order to secure deals, rather than wait for better times.
Business in Europe is characterised by the difficult situation in Italy. As the largest European market, it inevitably has the greatest impact on the overall market in Europe. Nobody wants to hear that the order situation in Italy is not improving and only a few specialised companies can fall back on a reasonably normal order backlog.
The rest are thinking about how to respond to insufficient orders. All actions are being considered and it is worth remembering that we are only in mid-April and there is still a long time to go before the seasonal recovery in September or October.
Owing to the stupidity that caused the price increase at the abattoirs, discussions about sales in Europe have been very difficult. For us, at least, discussions about corresponding increases in sales prices were almost always in vain. How we deal with the situation in the coming months will certainly be one of the most exciting questions in the time ahead.
Overall, sales were again below average and the pressure to get a clear picture of demand and volumes in the coming months is increasing. Another decisive factor will be how the financial situation in the leather industry develops in the coming months.
The kill: No big news from the meat companies. Slaughter remains at the lower, seasonal levels. The Chinese market has reopened to German beef, so it remains to be seen whether this can develop additional export business for all. Otherwise, any change in slaughter volumes in the coming weeks would be a surprise.
What we expect: We have already made our opinion of the market very clear in our report and also in the weeks before. The situation along the supply chain in the leather industry is anything but satisfactory. Mass producers in Asia may still have sufficient orders at the moment, but this is of very limited importance for the raw materials that we provide from Europe. Tanners in Asia currently have no great need or pressure to cover their raw material requirements. Consequently, they are holding back in anticipation of falling prices. In Europe, the situation will not change until leather orders improve significantly. From today’s perspective, therefore, a positive development cannot be expected in the near future.
| Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg green weight |
Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ox | Heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 1,00 | Stable |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,70 | Stable | |
| Dairy cows | 15/24,5 kg | 22,5/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,65 | Weakish |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,55 | Weakish | |
| 30/+ kg | 33,5/35,5 kg | 27/+ kg | 29/31 kg | € 0,55 | Weakish | |
| Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,85 | Weakish |
| 30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 0,90 | Weakish | |
| 40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+ kg | 38/40 kg | € 0,90 | Stable | |
| Thirds | 15/+ kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+ kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,40 | Weakish |
| Thirds bulls | 30/+ kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+ kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,45 | Weakish |