German Perspective – 17.05.22
This week: The market is behaving as it often does in spring and the situation is only reinforced by the special circumstances in China and by the war in Ukraine. Infaltion comes on top of that. The biggest problem in this sector remains that emotions always come first and the facts second. The mood has clearly changed over the last ten days and even the last of the optimists, who did not want to or could not see the facts, have now been caught up by the events.
The market in our region is also turning and prices are weakening, as was the case before in many other regions. There are good reasons for this, but when the will is opposed to the facts, it is always difficult to accept the reality. Now psychology begins to take over. For many, the emotion dominates is fear.
Nothing special is happening; the market is reflecting the prevailing circumstances and the only question now is how strong and how long this trend will last. The only unfortunate thing is that there are still enough market participants who believe that the avalanche can be stopped with nice words and outstretched arms instead of facing up to the inevitabile and making the appropriate preparations for protection and the time afterwards. Even if many believe that history will not repeat itself, they should still be somewhat sceptical about the hide market at this point.
Once again, sellers are preoccupied with the big question of whether they will find enough customers who will buy, accept and pay for their goods in the near future. Here, too, it is widespread to think that one can achieve positives just by willing them to happen. Unlikely!
Activity last week was strongly marked by the fact that a good number of suppliers from Central Europe were quickly trying to find sales, while others feared that, as is so often the case, anyone who comes too late will be punished. Tanners reacted to this with some reserve, and only those who had to plan their regular supply came up with prices at discounts to last month. However, from our point of view, much is still open, and this is of course also due to the fact that the new prices at the slaughterhouses for the month of May have not yet been finalised. The slaughterhouses are still not facing up to market developments. The fact remains that the majority of continental European hides are still overvalued and will have increasing problems finding sufficient customers as time goes on.
From Asia we saw very little or no interest this week, partly because of the holiday week and the still difficult pandemic situation in China. Business in Europe is limited to regular and recurring contracts, which have been agreed with discounts of between 3% and 12% as a first step. Cowhides are suffering more than hides from male cattle from in terms of price.
However, the big deals that are due in the next few weeks will only be negotiated in earnest nearer the time. Overall, low slaughter is still helping at the moment to keep things from getting out of hand.
| Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg green weight |
Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ox | Heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 1,25 | Stable |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,85 | Weak | |
| Dairy cows | 15/24,5 kg | 22,5/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,75 | Weak |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,70 | Weak | |
| 30/+ kg | 33,5/35,5 kg | 27/+ kg | 29/31 kg | € 0,65 | Weak | |
| Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 1,20 | Weaker |
| 30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 1,45 | Weakening | |
| 40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+ kg | 38/40 kg | € 1,40 | Weakening | |
| Thirds | 15/+ kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+ kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,50 | Stable |
| Thirds bulls | 30/+ kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+ kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,50 | Stable |