German Perspective - 15.10.19
15/10/2019
In Germany, meat suppliers are complaining about poor demand for premium cuts. Commodity beef for convenience food is still selling pretty well and the kill of females continues to be steady or somewhat better. This will certainly change as we get into the last quarter and then the balance will shift again.
From China we traced a lot of interest in heavy cows, but all for prompt shipment. Prompt means at the moment until, at the latest, the second week in November. With all the necessary preparations, the lead times required and the bureaucracy, the good old days are over when you were able to get goods on a vessel in a week. We would not be surprised if people holding stocks were able to take the chance to get rid of some of it. The demand for swift shipment is strange on the one hand and possibly logical on the other. It must be directly related to the strong demand for gelatine in China, low stock of raw material and the early Chinese New Year in 2020 (January 25). Shipping in the first half of November means end-of-December arrival in China. This leaves a few weeks for production in January before the holiday.
Not many are willing to take a position for the period after that, and there is still plenty of time left until further procurement and plans have to be made.
There is still a bit of interest for specialties, but also in this section we are dealing with more specific demands and nobody cares about the left-overs. In general the different extremes of the market are drifting further apart. Demand continues to focus on value-added goods of better quality. Such raw material and semi-finished products still stand up well against massive price pressure. This is not a surprise as there is enough if not excessive demand for the material. For the lower end it is a battle of prices.
Sales this week were not really sufficient and this is mainly the result of unbalanced demand. The numbers are missing for the commodity types.
The kill: The kill is very low for males. Premium beef is difficult to sell and this is reflected in the slaughter. Production is moving away from bulls to heifers. Weights for females are actually still lower than normal for the season. This may continue for a while, but as temperatures fall and we move into winter the balance will shift again.
What we expect: It is hard to see how we could exit the vicious circle we have been in for a while. The number of people who think there will be a fundamental turnaround is declining; only a handful are left. The problem is to secure demand for commodity hides around the globe. For the rest it looks stable.
| Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg green weight | Trend |
| Ox/heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 1,20 |
Stable |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,65 | Stable |
|
|
Dairy cows |
15/24,5 kg |
22,5/23,5 kg |
13/22 kg |
20/21 kg |
€ 0,65 |
Stable |
|
25/29,5 kg |
27,5/28,5 kg |
22/27 kg |
25/26 kg |
€ 0,50 |
Stable | |
|
30/+kg |
33,5/35,5 kg |
27/+kg |
29/31 kg |
€ 0,45 |
Stable | |
| Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/ 27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 1,15 |
Pressure |
| 30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 1.15 |
Pressure |
|
| 40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+kg | 38/40 kg | € 1.05 |
Pressure |
|
| Thirds | 15/+kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,30 |
Weak |
| Thirds bulls | 30/+kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,40 |
Weak |
Share this story:
