German Perspective - 28.02.17
28/02/2017
As far as innovation in articles and leather types, the show was a bit less impressive. This is not necessarily for the bad, but just a comment. Asking and checking around for any real news, one was not able to trace too much of it. Certainly a lot of eye-catchers, but when it came to the question what is really selling and what customers are asking for, it remains pretty much as it has been already for a few seasons. The successful leather business remains in the natural, high-quality and classic designs. The big manufacturers may play around with a few colours, but we were not able to trace too many real experiments or news.
We would call the number of people walking down the aisles and visiting stands to be less than before, which means absolutely nothing because when the right people come it is still good enough. From this aspect we tend to believe that most exhibitors were satisfied with the way the show went. However, we should not forget that the vast majority of exhibitors are companies that play in the Premier League in terms of leather quality and fashion and this market segment has been and seems to be still in good condition.
Having said that it is also clear that leather prices are once again the main problem. Leather buyers, in particular from shoe brands, have made it very clear that the trend to substitute leather remains unbroken and there is absolutely no intention to pay more; there is interest in seeing if the average material price can be reduced further. This is in total contrast with the interpretation of various raw material suppliers who consider this present balance and stability as a new chance to push and to challenge the market on the upside. It is a classic pattern for this time of the year and not unusual in the weeks prior to the APLF exhibition in Hong Kong (March 29-31).
All of this could become a dangerous game when the peak season of leather production comes to an end, temperatures rise and the general need for raw material in many segments begins to decline.
The trade seems to be leaning towards making the same mistakes again and we can just hope that things will keep the same balance and stability as we have seen for quite a long time now.
The moderate rise in cow prices, which was basically related to currency and an interest from China in specific material can be explained, but also here the tanners are beginning to dig their heels in and to declare that they are not willing to march on.
Sales during the week were steady and stable as they would be with most activity limited to regular customers. This is definitely not the time to look for new adventures and it seems to us that most of our colleagues are quite happy to stick to what they know and to keep things running smoothly.
We would call prices steady overall with very small variations on either side depending on the article.
The kill: The kill in the past weeks was surprisingly strong. In particular dairy cows came in in much bigger numbers than expected and we have to admit that we have been completely wrong expecting the numbers to fall.
What we expect: It is pretty obvious that sellers will now try to test the waters and talk the market up. How successful they are depends on the buyers who don’t see any reason to lift purchasing prices, and in some sectors are even thinking about the opposite.
| Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg green weight | Trend |
| Ox/heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 2,20 |
Steady |
| 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 1.60 |
Steady |
|
|
Dairy cows |
15/24,5 kg |
22,5/23,5 kg |
13/22 kg |
20/21 kg |
€ 1.70 |
Steady |
|
25/29,5 kg |
27,5/28,5 kg |
22/27 kg |
25/26 kg |
€ 1,50 |
Steady | |
|
30/+ kg |
33,5/35,5 kg |
27/+ kg |
29/31 kg |
€ 1,40 |
Firmish | |
| Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/ 27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 1,90 |
Steady |
| 30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 1.90 |
Steady |
|
| 40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+ kg | 38/40 kg | € 1.80 |
Weakish |
|
| Thirds | 15/+ kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+ kg | 24/26 kg | € 1,25 |
Steady |
| Thirds bulls | 30/+ kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+ kg | 33/36 kg | € 1.25 |
Steady |
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