Intelligence

German Perspective - 07.01.14

07/01/2014
What happened this week: Being the first report of the year we would like to wish all our readers a very happy, healthy and prosperous new year. From what we can see at this stage it will definitely not become any easier for this trade; there seem to be quite a number of obstacles on the road ahead.

The past two weeks have been pretty uneventful in Europe, because the holidays were extremely labour-friendly and most businesses were closed until after the feast of the Epiphany (January 6). Consequently, most of the business activity was left to overseas customers and as usual some of them were willing to test the waters and to see if the absence of European tanners would give them the opportunity to grab some bargains from nervous sellers. It doesn’t look as though they had too much success. Perhaps sellers were on holiday and did not bother about selling (because they believe the theory that the new year will see lower slaughter numbers and consequently better opportunities). This meant not much activity in the market, although some action was seen immediately after new year.

The problem remains that customers are extremely price-conscious and this means that only materials that fit into a certain price range can attract any interest. In our case, all enquiries were either for dairy cows or for low grades, which are still at price levels tanners in Asia consider to be affordable. In the end, it was a similar situation to that of other markets, in which expensive hides are difficult to move.

After quite some time of negotiation we were able in the end to generate a number of sales for these grades that we considered to be advisable for the start of the new year. The problem remains that for the price levels required for male hides above 30 kilos there is no buyer insight. Our price range would even be above the levels of American steers and selling this kind of raw material is practically impossible at present.

This leaves the hides from the daily production of abattoirs pretty difficult to market. Heavy bulls still have enough support from the automotive industry and while female hides are considered a cheaper alternative, one has a seriously difficult time moving this part of the production. In the case of most European hide processors this means a very difficult time in calculations because you still have to buy the hides at one price as they come from the slaughter line. At least the US dollar has helped a little by falling to levels around $1.38 to the euro before the end of the year; if this fell short of solving the problem, it at least eased the pain.

From the export statistics from the US one can see that even German tanners are making similar calculations and find some of the US hides today an attractive alternative to the standard materials they are used to buying. This explains pretty clearly why we consider most of the standard European hides to be overvalued. We will see if this position is correct in the weeks to come when normal market activity resumes. A lot will certainly depend on whether Asian tanners are covered sufficiently and do not need to return to the market for volume-buying prior to their holiday break at the end of this month. If most of them feel that they are covered enough for their productions until March, we could see a pretty quiet time with quite a bit of disappointment on the sellers’ side in the weeks to come. The opposite scenario would be that tanners need replenishment and we would see a flurry of interest before they close down for their vacation.

We can’t see any real argument for one opinion or the other at the moment, so it might be wise just to live from week to week and to keep positions as balanced as possible for the time being. As already said above sales have been reasonable for some articles and prices steady or just a fraction lower.

The kill: For the few days of slaughter, the numbers in the past weeks have been decent. Unfortunately weights are coming down, which is not helping the calculations of a hide processor these days. Like everybody else, we expect the kill to be moderate until mid-February from now on.

What we expect: Sales activity will only resume by the middle of next week and consequently we think that there will not be much price variation until the middle of the month when the realities will take over again. So, we expect little in terms of prices for the next week or ten days until everybody is sorted out.

Type Weight range Avg. green weight Salted weight Avg. weight salted Price per kg green weight Trend
Ox/heifers 15/24,5 kg 22,0/23,5 kg 13/22 kg 20/21 kg € 2,50
Steady
25/29,5 kg 27,5/28,5 kg 22/27 kg 25/26 kg 2,15
Pressure

Dairy cows

15/24,5 kg

22,5/23,5 kg

13/22 kg

20/21 kg

2,25

Pressure

25/29,5 kg

27,5/28,5 kg

22/27 kg

25/26 kg

1,95

Pressure

30/+ kg

33,5/35,5 kg

27/+ kg

29/31 kg

1,80

Pressure

Bulls 25/29,5 kg 27,5/28,5 kg 22/ 27 kg 25/26 kg 2,30
Pressure
30/39,5 kg 36,0/37,0 kg 24/34 kg 31/33 kg 2,30
Steady
40/+ kg 45,0/48,0 kg 34/+ kg 38/40 kg 2,20
Steady
Thirds 15/+ kg 25,0/27,5 kg 13/+ kg 24/26 kg 1,65
Steady
Thirds bulls 30/+ kg 38,0/40,0 kg 24/+ kg 33/36 kg 1,70
Steady