Macroeconomics

Of the economic indicators that were released during the period under review (November 8-22), virtually all were pessimistic – at least as far as the western world was concerned.

In the US, the uncertain outlook was underlined by the 50 base point cut seen in interest rates, bringing them to their lowest level of the past 41 years, plus the fall in the closely-monitored Institute of Supply Management (ISM) index to 48.5 points in October. In Germany, the ZEW index also headed South, while the EU Commission’s growth expectations for 2003 were downwardly revised from 2.9% to 1.8%. The only exception to the gloom was the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index that rose 4.4 points to 85 index points.

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