Macroeconomics

Politically, the next elections in the US are already playing a decisive role. Realistically, we must assume a new contest between President Biden and Donald Trump. Mr Trump is managing to repurpose the indictments against him as indictments against his party and his voters. This strategy is proving to be quite successful. If one considers the concerns about the current president’s age and performance, all possibilities are open. Mr Trump’s re-election could be viewed as being in Russia’s interests and it is not particularly difficult to imagine what this could mean for the war in Ukraine and for the relationship between the US and China. 

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