German Perspective - 19.07.11
What happened this week: After many weeks of pretty limited activity, this week we saw a flurry of sales. How much was actually related to purchase demand or a result of the sharp and extended currency movements the coming weeks will tell. Whatever the reason, one could see that Asia is pretty unimpressed by the recent turmoil of the financial markets and Asian buyers don’t think their exports will face any serious harm from the consequences of the debt crisis in Europe or America. There are possibly also those who follow the strategy that it might be better to own assets rather than money when things are really turning sour. Most commodities are still pretty stable and only a few have seen any major pressure and downward corrections. One is cotton, which has been almost in free-fall since the beginning of the year and has now reached levels seen last October. There is no direct correlation between leather and cotton, but at least in upholstery there is some interchange of materials due to prices. It is still pretty difficult to judge how much serious demand is out there. The low summer kill in Europe is showing its momentary influence and supporting those who believe that the market continues to be supply-driven. If the general economical dram does not influence the consumer negatively, they might be right. If general optimism is not justified and the consumer watches his money, the high stocks in retail might become a burden.